The latest stories from www.wnyc.org

How To Be Black

Sat, 08 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0500

If you love playing around with palindromes, quoting Downton Abbey's Dowager Countess, and spotting factual errors in the news (Editor's note: "What factual errors?"), then this episode will make you so happy, you'll want to clap your hands.

The Puzzle Master Takes On The Puzzle Grasshopper

Sat, 01 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0500

This week, famous works of art and literature are slapped with product placement, we honor "Weird Al" Yankovic's timeless tunes, and one of Ask Me Another's own challenges the puzzle world master in an anagram showdown for the ages.

The Big, Mean, and Green

Sat, 24 Nov 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Test your ability to tell the difference between a Harry Potter spell, a prescription drug, and a piece of IKEA furniture. Then, meet a Rhodes Scholar-turned-filmmaker and comic book scribe — this week's Ask Me Another Mystery Guest.

The Girl Who Played With Her Food

Sat, 17 Nov 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Translate international film titles, like "Meetings and Failures in Meetings," back into English, and try to name a military official famous for his chicken — who isn't Colonel Sanders. Then, meet our sweet-toothed chemist of a Mystery Guest.

The Moth Radio Hour

Fri, 16 Nov 2012 00:00:00 -0500

George Plimpton gives an auction winner a star-studded walk through legendary NYC eatery Elaine's; rookie reporter Lewis Lapham learns a lot about the world when he has to break some bad news to a new widow; World Boxing Light Heavyweight Champion Jose Torres defines and then conquers fear; Christopher Hitchens is deified in Ceylon (Sri Lanka). Hosted by George Dawes Green, founder of The Moth.

November's Book: The Bonfire of the Vanities, by Tom Wolfe

Wed, 14 Nov 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Tom Wolfe’s bestselling novel The Bonfire of the Vanities is a pitch-perfect portrait of New York in the late 1980s—a city seething with racial tension in Harlem and the Bronx while traders were raking in huge profits on Wall Street. Wolfe’s sharp observations skewer New York society’s greed and arrogance, and highlight the simmering resentment between the haves and have nots. The New York Times Book Review called it “A big, bitter, funny, craftily plotted book that grabs you by the lapels and won’t let go.” Read it now and get your lapels grabbed!

Tom Wolfe will be here on November 14 to talk about the novel, and how the New York City of 1987 compares to the city today, 25 years later.

Get the conversation started now by leaving your comments and questions about the book!

Secret Agent Man

Sat, 10 Nov 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Host Ophira Eisenberg and her puzzle gurus serve up presidential tunes from our nation's capital, such as the hit song "Summer of '69," by the second U.S. President John Adams...wait a minute. Also on the menu are a variety of cheeses—or are they Moby Dick characters? This week's Mystery Guest probably knows, since his specialty is intelligence.

The Moth Radio Hour

Fri, 09 Nov 2012 00:00:00 -0500

A daughter realizes how naïve she’s been when she learns the truth about her mother’s pregnancy; a successful businessman reveals his childhood dream; a hitchhiker is picked up by an infamous driver; an exchange student experiences Japanese mosh pit etiquette; a teenager does a newspaper review of an Iggy Pop album and gets a surprising response. Hosted by Jenifer Hixson, Senior Producer at The Moth.

Credit Checks on Job Applicants

Fri, 09 Nov 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Brooklyn City Councilman (D-39) Brad Lander talks about a proposal he's co-sponsoring to ban the use of credit checks during hiring in New York City. Plus,Emmett Pinkston talks about how his credit score disqualified him for a job with the Transportation Security Administration two years ago.

#BL270: Tweet Us Your Election Predictions

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 13:00:00 -0500

Who do you think is going to reach 270 electoral votes? How? Tweet us your predictions. Get it right, and you'll get a shoutout on the BL Show Wednesday morning! Here's how:

1) Go to 270ToWin.com and fill out your map.

2) Click on "Share Map" and hit the Twitter button, or copy the link.

3) Post the link below, or Tweet @BrianLehrer using the hashtag #BL270 Tweet #BL270

That's it! See what other WNYC fans are predicting below.

Will Hidden Issues Make The Agenda Next Term?

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 12:00:00 -0500

Angie's Tips On Avoiding Storm Scams

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 12:00:00 -0500

Is The Nightly Homework Battle Worth It?

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 12:00:00 -0500

What Issues Did The Candidates Miss?

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 12:00:00 -0500

Election Day Update

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 11:54:40 -0500

Anna Sale, It's A Free Country political reporter, offers Election Day analysis and updates on early and email voting logistics in New Jersey's storm-damaged precincts.

Election Day Call-In: Voting After Sandy, and Voting in the Swing States

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 11:47:42 -0500

It's Election Day! We talk to reporters, look at the important story lines, and more importantly take your calls. With:

WNYC's Richard Hake and New Jersey Public Radio's David Furst with the latest news on voting and the Sandy recovery, with NJPR's Nancy Solomon and WNYC's Beth Fertig and Bob Hennelly

Your calls for our Informal, Unofficial, Thoroughly Unscientific Exit Poll: How is post-Sandy voting going? What does voting today mean to you? Call 646-829-3980 or post below!

Plus, reporters from crucial swing states discuss the latest polls and how their states are shaping up on Election Day:

Martin DiCaro, WAMU reporter, joins from Virginia
John O'Connor, reporter for NPR StateImpact Florida, checks in from Florida
Jo Ingles, statehouse news reporter for Ohio Public Radio and TV, covers the polls in Ohio

All day the WNYC newsroom is keeping their eye on your reports and questions on Twitter using #NYVote and #NJVote

Suburban Voting Trends

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 11:41:11 -0500

Larry Levy, executive director of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, talks about the final National Suburban Poll, which measures the voting preferences of the nation's most influential swing voters, suburbanites.

Disaster Relief After Sandy

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 11:40:21 -0500

Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness with Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health and founder of the Children's Health Fund, looks at the disaster relief operation underway and talks about the roles of the various organizations, from FEMA to ad hoc grassroots groups.

U.N. Envoy - Syria Could Be The Next Somalia

Korva Coleman — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 11:05:00 -0500

A U.N special envoy says fighting is so entrenched in Syria that it could face 'Somalization'.

Violence continues in Syria, after car bombs blew up and fighting continued in Damascus and other Syrian cities on Monday. Today, gunmen shot and killed the brother of the speaker of Syria's parliament. Mohammad Osama al-Laha was killed when he was driving to work, according to Syrian state media, which blamed terrorists for his murder.

It's the latest in many acts of widespread violence that led U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi to lament, "I believe that if the (Syrian) crisis is not solved in a right way, there will be the danger of Somalization, " reported AP. "It will mean the fall of the state, rise of war lords and militias." Somalia hasn't had a full central government since 1991, notes the BBC.

The same fear is echoed by Nobel peace prize winner Jose Ramos-Horta, who helped bring independence to his home, East Timor. He recently visited Syria and warns the Syrian government will fight simply for the survival of President Bashar Assad; he alleges the Syrian rebels are not democratic, according to Al-Arabiya.

British prime minister David Cameron floated a trial balloon today, suggesting the fighting could end more quickly if Syrian president Assad could safely leave the country, according to Al-Arabiya:

"Anything, anything, to get that man out of the country and to have a safe transition in Syria. Of course I would favor him facing the full force of international law and justice for what he's done. I am certainly not offering him an exit plan to Britain but if he wants to leave he could leave, that could be arranged."

The trial balloon seems to be made of lead. Human rights organizations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch were outraged at the suggestion. Amnesty spokesman Kristyan Benedict said Cameron should focus on getting Assad in front of a war crimes tribunal:

"After Syrian government forces have indulged in a massive campaign of indiscriminate bombings, mass round-ups and torture, there should be no question of Bashar al-Assad escaping justice with a cosy deal of this kind."

Cameron is traveling to Saudi Arabia; the Guardian reports the British foreign office issued a statement today, saying the prime minister hasn't talked to others about how Assad might leave Syria, and that Cameron's administration is clear that Assad must face justice while Syrians must choose their own new leaders.

How Are You Killing Time While Waiting To Vote?

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 11:04:28 -0500

Voting In Your Swim Trunks: Why Not?

Kainaz Amaria — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 11:04:00 -0500

According to the National Democratic Institute, the world will be watching as results of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election are tabulated. So we thought we'd turn the tables and take a look at how voting is exercised in other countries.

In the U.S., barring the occasional odd polling place, most engaged citizens file into their local elementary schools and churches or, more recently, vote via mail-in ballot.

But abroad we found some unorthodox approaches to voting.

In Romania, a bikini is perfectly fine attire in which to vote, and in rural Kyrgyzstan, the ballot is brought straight to your dinner table.

While I didn't find a polling official at my table this morning, I did cast my vote for the first time in Washington, D.C. I may not live in one of the hotly contested swing states, but I didn't want to miss out on the ritual.

Christopher Walken on "A Late Quartet"

Tue, 06 Nov 2012 11:03:49 -0500

Christopher Walken talks about his role in the new film “A Late Quartet.” He plays the cellist of a world-renowned string quartet. When he receives a life changing diagnosis, the group's future suddenly hangs in the balance. “A Late Quartet” is playing at Lincoln Plaza Cinemas at the Sunshine Landmark Cinemas.

What to Watch: Explaining the Patchwork Vote

Dante Chinni — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 11:00:03 -0500

Patchwork Nation's Dante Chinni is on hand all through election night to give updates about how to understand the voting breakdown and what to watch for as the swing states come in.

12pm

As the returns come in tonight, WNYC will be tracking the results by traditional state and county measures, but it will also we watching the results through the framework of Patchwork Nation – a demographic/geographic breakdown of 12 different types of county in America.

Those 12 types run from the densely populated urban counties called the Industrial Metropolis (places like four of the five boroughs) to the rural, agricultural counties called Tractor Country. You can see them laid out on the map here.

The county types were created by taking into account a slew of demographic and economic data – everything from race and income to occupation and religion and more. And they are a helpful way of looking at underlying forces behind the votes we’ll all be watching tonight.

The goal is to show not only who is winning and where they are winning, but how they are winning and why. The Patchwork Nation types offer a useful guide to getting an understanding of those more complicated questions.

I'll be here all night analyzing the results and commenting on them but some early keys to look for:

The wealthy, suburban Monied Burb counties swung heavily to President Obama in 2008. He won those counties by 10 percentage points. If he wins them by anywhere near that margin tonight, he will likely be reelected. Virginia, where the polls close at 7 p.m., has a lot of people who live in the Burbs and will be important to watch.

Some polling shows Mitt Romney is likely to do well in the rural, less-wealthy counties known as the Service Worker Centers. Pennsylvania and Ohio are full of those kinds of counties and if Romney is going to win either of those states the Service Workers are going to have to perform well for him.

And the big city Industrial Metropolis counties will be crucial to watch for one reason: turnout. Obama will win those counties by large margins, Democrats do that. But he needs big votes out of those places to offset traditional Republican margins in the smaller rural counties scattered across the battleground states.

Come back at 6 p.m. when the first polls close and we begin filling in the map for what many expect to be a long night.

Car Bomb Kills At Least 26 In Baghdad Attack

Eyder Peralta — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 10:47:00 -0500

An explosive-filled car was detonated near an Army base in Baghdad today, just as would-be recruits gathered outside. The explosion killed at least 26 people, reports The New York Times. Reuters puts the death toll at 31.

Reuters reports that this is "one of the worst attacks this year on [Iraq's] military."

The wire service adds:

"Bombings and attacks have eased sharply since the height of Iraq's sectarian strife in 2006-2007, but al Qaeda's local affiliate and other Sunni Islamist insurgents often target local security forces and Shi'ite Muslims to stoke tensions.

"The bomber drove his car into crowds of troops and recruits outside the base in Taji, 20 km (12 miles) north of the Iraqi capital, leaving body parts and burned vehicles scattered in the streets outside, police and hospital officials said."

Now, Reuters is saying the attack was perpetrated by a "suicide bomber," but CNN and The New York Times are saying it was a car bomb.

The Times spoke to one man who was wounded. Mohamed Talal said recruits were checking their names on a list near the outside wall.

"I was heading to the place near the parking lot to check my name when all of sudden a strong explosion happened where the people was gathering," Talal told the paper. "I turned and started to run, and I began to feel shrapnel in my back and I fell to the ground."

The Times reports that the car was detonated remotely.

Depression And Health Spending Go Together

Jordan Rau — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 10:32:00 -0500

Depression is the most costly among 10 common risk factors linked to higher health spending on employees, according to a new study drawn from the experience at seven companies.

The analysis, published in the journal Health Affairs, found that these factors — which also included obesity, high blood sugar and high blood pressure — were associated with nearly a quarter of the money spent on the health care of more than 92,000 workers.

First the employees were assessed for health risks, then researchers tracked their medical spending from 2005 through 2009.

The average medical spending for each employee was $3,961 a year. In total, $82 million, or 22 percent, of the $366 million annually spent on health care for the workers was attributed to the 10 risk factors, the study found.

The relationship between higher spending and depression was the strongest, with 48 percent more spending for workers with a propensity for that widespread problem.

People with high blood sugar had medical expenses that were almost one-third higher, as did people with high blood pressure. Obesity was associated with 27 percent more spending.

Tobacco use, sedentary behavior and high stress also were related to increased spending, although not as much as those other risk factors. People with multiple risk factors tended to have the highest health costs.

The study couldn't show that any of these risk factors caused the higher spending, merely that they were related. And the study discovered that three risk factors — high cholesterol, poor nutrition and eating habits and alcohol drinking — were actually associated with slightly lower health spending.

The researchers suggested various explanations for these counterintuitive findings. As for alcohol, they wrote that "the nationally recognized threshold for high risk (three drinks a day for men and two for women) may need to be revisited, because drinking at these levels would not constitute alcohol abuse."

They questioned the usefulness of the way the study measured a nutritious diet, writing it might not be enough to simply measure fruit and vegetable consumption. As for cholesterol, they asserted that its impact on health might be more complicated than a simple causal relationship.

The study was led by Ron Goetzel, director of Emory University's Institute for Health and Productivity Studies and an executive at Truven Health Analytics in Washington, D.C. (Truven and NPR are partners in a regular consumer health poll.)

The researchers said the overall results of the study could offer encouragement to employers to do more to screen workers for high-risk behaviors and get them treatment.

On the question of whether employers might try to screen out prospective employees with these risk factors, the authors said that so many people in the nation have one or more of these risk factors that any such effort might crimp hiring. "More important," the authors wrote, "taking this approach would also be unethical and illegal."

NJ's Aging Infrastructure No Match for Superstorm

Tom Johnson — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 09:29:23 -0500

Even before Hurricane Sandy slammed into the state, New Jersey faced mind-boggling upgrade costs to modernize its aging infrastructure: from drinking water facilities, to mass transit, to structurally deficient bridges — among other pressing projects.

In the aftermath of the worst storm ever to hit New Jersey, those challenges have become even more daunting, especially given the dire fiscal straits Gov. Chris Christie and the Legislature are expected to once again find themselves in next year.

“The question is how much damage is there to the road infrastructure network and transit infrastructure network?’’ asked Philip Beachem, president of the New Jersey Alliance for Action, a group that typically lobbies for funds to rebuild the state’s transportation infrastructure. “How bad is it?’’

Plenty bad, judging from early assessments.

Bridges washed out at the Jersey Shore; broken natural gas pipelines burst into flame, burning down houses; and malfunctioning wastewater treatment plants spilled raw sewage into waterways when they lost power.

A week after the storm came ashore, officials were still assessing the damage. This includes determining just how badly the state’s public rail transit system fared.

“There are serious power, track, and signal problems along the Northeast corridor,’’ Christie said yesterday at an afternoon press briefing on recovery efforts after the storm. The Northeast corridor -- stretching from New York to Trenton -- is one of the busiest and most important rail lines in the state.

Most officials said it is still much too early to put a dollar figure on damage caused by the storm, which hit the coastal region especially hard. That poses bigger problems because of the corrosive effect of saltwater on metal, industry experts said.

“When you’re looking at anything metallic, it’s going to corrode. It’s not a matter of if, but when,’’ said Rick Grant, a principal in Russell Corrosion Consultants. “The infrastructure damage is clearly going to run in the billions of dollars.’’

Where the money is going to come from to finance that effort remains unknown. For years, the state has ignored investing in its infrastructure, a failure the American Society of Civil Engineers said in a 2009 study left New Jersey in a sorry state when it comes to maintaining important public services.

That study found that 36 percent of New Jersey’s bridges were structurally deficient; the state had 213 high-hazard dams, meaning a failure could lead to a significant loss of life; and 78 percent of New Jersey’s roads were in either poor or mediocre condition. The state also needed to invest nearly $7 billion over the next two decades to meet its drinking water needs, and another $9 billion upgrading wastewater treatment plants, according to the study.

"The numbers are so big it is going to rely on federal dollars and borrowing," according to Rich Keevey, a member of a state budget crisis task force and former state budget director, whose report projects that the state will have more than $130 billion in needs over the next decade, including $80 billion in transportation costs and $40 billion for wastewater and drinking water.

One way to address the problem, Grant said, is to determine what parts of the infrastructure can be rehabilitated and what parts need to be replaced. No matter how those decisions play out, because of the sheer magnitude of damage caused by the storm, it is going to take years to address the problems, he said.

How and when New Jersey rebuilds from the storm also is likely to generate a whole lot of debate.

“It gives the state an opportunity to rebuild its infrastructure,’’ said Chris Sturm, senior policy analyst for New Jersey Future, an organization that advocates smart growth. “There is more urgency to rebuilding it better to deal with rising sea levels, extreme storms, and increased flooding.’’

The storm raised important questions that ought to be debated, Sturm said. “Are there some parts too vulnerable and should not be redeveloped. It’s very expensive to rebuild things if it is likely they will be destroyed again,’’ she said.

Jeff Tittel, director of the New Jersey Sierra Club, agreed.

“We must and we will rebuild after Hurricane Sandy,’’ he said. “However we need to do it better, smarter, and in the right places. New Jersey needs to fundamentally change how and where we build along our flood-prone areas.’’

NJ Spotlight is an online news service providing insight and information on issues critical to New Jersey, with the aim of informing and engaging the state’s communities and businesses. Read more From New Jersey Spotlight.

PHOTO: Mitt And Ann Romney Cast Their Ballots In Massachusetts

Eyder Peralta — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 09:16:00 -0500

The Republican presidential nominee Gov. Mitt Romney and his wife Ann cast their ballots near their home in Belmont, Mass. this morning.

Garrett Jackson, Romney's assistant, has been keeping a close record on Twitter of Romney's Election Day movements.

Among his observations: Romney had peanut butter and honey on toast for breakfast. And being at home on a Tuesday meant Romney had to take out the trash.

On the Democratic side, Vice President Joe Biden cast his ballot near his home in Delaware and he made a bit of news. According to CNN, Biden hinted at a presidential run of his own, saying he didn't think this was the last time he would cast a ballot for himself.

President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama, if you're wondering, voted early this year.

Evacuation Ordered In Brick, New Jersey Ahead Of Intense Nor'Easter

Eyder Peralta — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 09:00:00 -0500

There is no good news for New Jersey this morning. Already struggling to clean up from the mess left behind by Superstorm Sandy, an intense winter storm is on its way.

In fact, officials have already ordered a mandatory evacuation for residents living in the low-lying areas of Brick, New Jersey.

"Brick lists a number of areas from which residents must evacuate, while 'strongly' encouraging some whose homes were damaged or otherwise affected by Sandy to leave the area as well," CNN reports.

The Newark Star-Ledger reports that forecasters are now expecting this nor'easter to be stronger than they originally thought. The Star-Ledger reports:

"In a briefing by the National Weather Service's Mount Holly office, the coastal nor'easter already predicted to hit New Jersey ... will be more intense and move more slowly through the region than had first been thought, carrying the potential of even more damage to a state still struggling to recover from the pummeling it took from Sandy.

"Higher wind gusts are now expected, as well as more significant coastal flooding to a shoreline with few natural defenses left.

"The nor'easter, expected to hit early Wednesday and strengthen as the day goes on, has 'the potential for a high-impact event, and unfortunately the storm may fall over places affected by Sandy,' said meteorologist Mitchell Gaines with the National Weather Service. 'Whenever you get storm-force wind gusts, there is always the chance of power outages.'"

Remember, there are still many people without power. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, 1.35 million homes and businesses were still dark yesterday afternoon.

The Weather Channel reports that by Wednesday "wind gusts over 60 mph seem most likely from Cape Cod into Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and eastern Long Island. Occasional gusts over 50 mph are possible in New York City and Boston. Gusts along the Jersey shore should primarily be in the 40-50 mph range."

In The Rockaways, People Were Voting In The Dark

Eyder Peralta — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 08:34:00 -0500

"Here in the rockaways, people are voting in the dark. There are no lights, there is no heat."

That's how NPR's Robert Smith described the situation in the Rockaways, which is in one of the boroughs hardest hit by Superstorm Sandy in New York.

"There was supposed to be a generator running to run this entire polling place but when poll workers got there in the morning, they discovered it had no fuel," Robert told our Newscast unit.

Robert spoke to Jared Paine who said this is now considered normal around those parts. A helicopter could be heard hovering above as they spoke. And many New Yorkers cast their ballots inside tents.

"I expected this or something like this at least," Paine said.

"And you're willing to put up with it?" Robert asked.

"To vote, of course. You gotta put up with it."

Robert called us a few minutes ago to let us know that the generator is now running and the lights are now on.

Voting Queue Etiquette: Hey, Buddy, That's Out Of Line!

Scott Neuman — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 08:16:00 -0500

For most of us, Election Day marks a welcome end to months of relentless political ads and partisan bickering. You show up at your polling place, run the gantlet of sign-wielding campaign volunteers, and join your fellow Americans in long lines that inch toward the voting booth.

Maybe you while away the time quietly reflecting on the choices you're about to make. But in an age when the rules about when it's OK to express one's political opinion seem to have frayed, what if someone decides the line at the polling station is the place to talk politics?

Just ask Laura Hughey, who says she remembers one man who was "especially pushy" in making his views known as she waited to vote a few years ago. That experience has colored her views on how people ought to act at the polling station.

"Voting is a sacred privilege," says Hughey, a Dallas resident. "I don't need you to know whether or not I voted, or which candidate I voted for. I don't care to know your status or opinion either."

Hughey was one of many people who responded to a question on NPR's Facebook page about polling station etiquette.

Gail McDonald had a totally different experience when she recently cast her ballot in Florida. She says she was surprised by all the people in line who were wearing Obama and Romney garb, because her former home state of Georgia bars such forms of "passive electioneering."

"I actually had a great conversation with the lady behind me in line," writes McDonald, who is a campaign volunteer for President Obama. McDonald says she felt compelled to start a conversation because the woman was wearing a button that declared: "VOTE — your vagina is counting on you."

They wound up passing the hour in line discussing politics.

Unlike Florida, many states have laws against passive electioneering, such as wearing political buttons or T-shirts within a certain distance of the voting machines — usually the demarcation is within 100-150 feet. Ann Brekke of Chicago found that out in 2008 when her 9-year-old daughter accompanied her to the polls wearing an Obama T-shirt. An election judge intercepted them and told the girl to turn the shirt inside out.

Still, electioneering laws differ and enforcement can be spotty, says Elisabeth MacNamara, national president of the League of Women Voters.

"It varies from state to state and even from county to county," MacNamara says. "Even what steps a poll worker takes [to prevent passive electioneering] vary by state."

Of course, there's no law that keeps people from discussing their political opinions as they're queuing to vote.

Christopher Mercer claims he isn't shy about letting you know who he's voting for, and that he wears political shirts and buttons when he goes to the polls. "While standing in line, I will openly engage in discourse with members of the opposition," he writes in an email to NPR.

But count Kimberley Bryan-Brown among those who believe there's a time and a place for such conversations.

"I have to say even the overheard discussions bother me, because for some reason it feels like it's breaking some sort of ethical boundary," writes Bryan-Brown of Seattle. "When it comes to the moment of voting, when you're there at the gates, so to speak, there should be a kind of political silence."

Thomas Hollihan, a professor at the University of Southern California's Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism, says that for him, voting is "a bit like church."

"Elections are civic rituals, which in some ways are similar to formal religious rituals," says Hollihan, who wrote the book Uncivil Wars: Political Campaigns in a Media Age.

"I think it means one should be on their best and most polite behavior," he says. "And that does mean to respect that in America we honor the privacy of the vote, and that we allow each person to make up his or her own mind."

Allan Louden, a professor of political communication at Wake Forest University, agrees that voter-line etiquette means talking politics is out.

"In that spot, you don't do it. That's my experience," he says. "Besides, you could even have a backlash effect. If someone's being rude, you might not want to support their candidate."

Even so, there were plenty of people who responded to NPR's Facebook call-out who thought political conversations and even buttons and T-shirts are just fine.

"It's not going to change my mind one way or the other at that point," says William Falls Jr. of North Carolina. "And really, it's not much different than the candidates' pollsters standing in front of the building with their handouts."

Katy Cline of Tyler, Tex., says the voting line ought to be as quiet as the library. So when she and her husband waited along with their 4-year-old son, Dashill, during the GOP primary, they had no intention of talking politics. Dashill had other ideas.

"There was no line at the Democratic primary, and he asked why we can't go wait in that line," Cline recalls. "So, I thought, what better time than the present to talk about it?

"I was careful not to mention who we planned to vote for," she writes, "but we told him that the next time we voted, we would all be together in one big line and that you could vote for whoever you wanted. It didn't matter which line you'd waited in this time.

"I was quite nervous when I started to talk to him about it, but everyone was pretty supportive," Cline says. "I got mostly smiles from the people in line and the poll workers."

An Empty Debate: Politics Without Science

Adam Frank — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 08:13:00 -0500

Where is "science" this election season? It's everywhere and nowhere.

From the big race on down to local contests, we just haven't heard much talk about it during the campaign season that ends today. That's a pretty startling omission when you realize that almost all of the pressing, complex problems we face as a nation have roots in science and technology.

Don't believe me? Let's start with health care, where ever-more-powerful, ever-more-expensive technologies and drugs are one major reason for ever-spiraling costs. How about the economy and jobs? Since World War II science and technology have created at least half the U.S. economy's growth. And then, of course, there is the granddaddy of them all — climate.

Energy, national defense, and privacy issues: we have no shortage of problems rooted in science. Still, the only time science or technology appear in political debate are obvious platitudes about funding research and the need to boost grade-school-math education. We have lost our way on these issues. It's so bad that we can't even begin discussions on a topic, like climate, where the science is clear and its only role should be to frame debates over policy.

Our journey to this uncomfortable ambiguity about the national role of science holds an uncomfortable irony. The American experience has, essentially and always, been an American experiment. In that way we always understood our fates were bound to our commitment to science and the clarity it offers. That's what Benjamin Franklin believed. That is what Thomas Jefferson believed.

It was a commitment that was never partisan.

Abraham Lincoln, a Republican, was the president who created the National Academy of Sciences in 1863 so that science could guide the public good. Woodrow Wilson, a Democrat, expanded those efforts by creating the National Research Council in 1916. Eisenhower, a Republican, created NASA. Kennedy, a Democrat launched it on an epic quest to the moon. And it was Republican, Richard Nixon, who created one of our principal resources for understanding climate, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

These leaders understood and acted on a national commitment to science that I can see firsthand when talking with non-scientists across the country. Americans remain inspired by the vision science provides. They remain thrilled by its promise of understanding and advancement. It is that promise that we must not abandon.

Politics is, of course, a battle over values, policies and the national interest. That is how it should be. But if politics erode how the nation values science then the interests being served can't possibly be our own.

You can keep up with more of what Adam Frank is thinking on Facebook and on Twitter: @AdamFrank4

It's Election Day: 10 Headlines That Tell Today's Story

Eyder Peralta — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 08:02:00 -0500

It's finally here! It's Election Day. After months of campaigning and some $2 billion spent by both campaigns, it means political junkies will finally get some answers and those who aren't too enamored with Washington, will stop seeing ads on TV.

With that, here are 10 headlines that tell today's story:

-- "New Hampshire hamlet casts the first votes of Election Day 2012" (Washington Post): And it was was a tie: Obama and Romney both received five votes.

-- "Obama sheds a tear at final campaign rally" (Politico)

-- "Romney makes final push in N.H." (Sea Coast Online): Remember Romney kicked off his campaign in New Hampshire. He will end it there today.

-- Officials Rush to Find Ways for the Storm-Tossed to Vote (New York Times)

-- N.J.'s emergency e-mail voting system could cause problems, experts say ("The New Jersey Star-Ledger")

-- WaPo-ABC tracking poll: final weekend tally is Obama 50, Romney 47, still a 'margin of error' contest (Washington Post)

-- 21 moments that defined the campaign and America (CNN)

-- Next Congress to bring more minorities to Hill (Politico)

-- Florida's New Battleground: The State Supreme Court (NPR)

-- Here's how to tell who's winning Ohio on election night (Cleveland Plain Dealer)

And here's an extra, nuts-and-bolts post from our friends at It's All Politics that gives you all the important dates and times.

Mark will be around later tonight to live blog the results. And, of course, NPR will have live coverage at 8 p.m., which you'll be able to stream from NPR.org.

Bob Mould: He's Going Down Singing

Darren DeVivo — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 08:00:00 -0500

Bob Mould has spent the last couple years exploring his past. He published his autobiography, See a Little Light: The Trail of Rage and Melody, last year. More recently, he revisited the complete recordings of his '90s band Sugar for the purpose of reissuing them. All that looking back gave Mould the idea that the time was right for a return to the earlier sounds of his legendary '80s band Hüsker Dü, which blurred the lines separating punk, rock and pop.

Mould's new solo album, Silver Age, is a back-to-basics collection of songs that reflect and recall his musical past. A molten, melodic eruption of punkish power-pop, it recalls late-period Hüsker Dü, as well as Sugar's fondly recalled 1992 debut, Copper Blue.

Mould returned to WFUV recently and brought his current band — bassist Jason Narducy and, from Superchunk and The Mountain Goats, drummer Jon Wurster — for a powerful session that practically blew down the walls of our Studio A. Check out this performance of Mould's new song, "The Descent."

Guide For The Day: An Election Day Timeline

Padmananda Rama — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 07:03:00 -0500

The finish line is in sight as voters make their final decisions on Election Day. Here's a guide to key times of the day across the nation. Stay with NPR throughout the day as we follow the presidential race and key battles that will determine control of the House and Senate.

Join NPR to hear live coverage, which begins at 8 p.m. EST on NPR.org and many member stations.

For updates, check in to NPR's digital election headquarters, which includes an election night live blog starting at 6 p.m. EST, as well as electoral projections. All times are listed in Eastern Standard Time.

Poll Openings:

6 a.m.: The first polls open on Election Day in Connecticut, New Jersey, New York and Virginia. With 13 electoral votes, the swing state of Virginia is a key East Coast prize in the presidential race.

6:30 a.m.: Polls open in Ohio. Expect a floodgate of attention to surround this battleground state where the presidential candidates have invested enormous resources into winning its 18 electoral votes.

7 a.m.: The polls begin to open in Florida along with several states on the East Coast and across the Midwest, including GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney's home state of Massachusetts, and in Illinois where President Obama voted in Chicago last month.

8 a.m.: Polls begin to open in Western states with the final state polls opening in Alaska at 11 a.m. and Hawaii at 12:00 p.m.

Poll Closings:

7 p.m.: Polls in Indiana and Virginia close. Both states offer the earliest glimpse of the night to come. Virginia is likely to be the first battleground state to be called, and Indiana's Senate race is considered a must-win if the GOP is to have any chance of winning majority control of the upper chamber.

7:30 p.m.: All eyes are on Ohio as its polls close. Obama can win the night without Ohio, but Romney's path to the White House would be much steeper if he doesn't take the Buckeye State. Polls also close in North Carolina, where the GOP has opportunities for gains in the House.

8 p.m.: Key states closing are Florida and New Hampshire. Both states have been closely fought, and both are highly prized, but Florida with its 29 electoral votes is the biggest tossup state of the night. Illinois has a key House race to watch, which could hold the best opportunity for Democrats to pick up seats. Massachusetts, Missouri and Connecticut also close, all with important Senate races to watch.

9 p.m.: A batch of battleground states close their polls: Colorado, Wisconsin and Arizona. Together they account for 30 electoral votes. In addition, Wisconsin and Arizona, along with Nebraska and North Dakota, which close their polls at the same time, have high-profile Senate races.

10 p.m.: Iowa and Nevada are the final presidential swing states to close. Nevada and Montana both hold important Senate races, while Utah is holding a closely watched congressional race.

11 p.m.: California's polls close. This is the point at which the picture will begin to become clear about who is winning the battle for the White House. Polls also close in Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon and Washington. Final polls close in Alaska at 1:00 a.m.

The Battle For Congress: Senate And House Races To Watch

Carrie Johnson — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 07:01:00 -0500

For Republicans itching to regain control of the Senate, Tuesday's election presents a rare opportunity. Only 10 GOP incumbents are on the ballot, compared with nearly two dozen Democrats and independents who caucus with them.

That means the magic number for Republicans is low. They need only a net gain of three or four seats to take over the Senate — and, assuming they keep the U.S. House of Representatives, consolidate their influence on Capitol Hill. Democrats need to pick up 25 seats to seize the House, a goal that political analysts consider all but out of reach.

So whether the votes break the Republicans' way in about a dozen close Senate races could have a profound effect on whether the "do nothing" Congress shakes its bad reputation and whether constituents should expect action on such big-ticket items as taxes, entitlement reform and energy policy.

Vying for Leadership

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who famously vowed to make Barack Obama a one-term president, has promised that if his party wins the Senate in Election 2012, "things will be different."

McConnell delivered a floor speech in late September decrying the Senate's Democratic leadership for failing to complete the most "basic work of government," from spending bills to budgets.

"So if the American people decide they want to make a change, the commitment I make to them is the Republican conference is going to pass a budget," he said. "It may be hard. We may have to twist a few arms."

But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., isn't willing to give up his job just yet.

"The Republican Party has become the party of wouldn'ts and won'ts," Reid told the audience two months ago at the Democratic National Convention. "I have had a front row seat to watch the Tea Party take over the Republican Party. For 3 1/2 years, they wouldn't govern. They couldn't lead. And we shouldn't let them take over the Senate and the White House."

Senate Races To Watch

Despite the favorable election arithmetic at the outset, Republicans are foundering in several key races and seem unlikely to take control. More likely, they'll pick up two or three seats, and lose a few.

One such loss could come in Indiana. The reason: Tea Party favorite Richard Mourdock. The Indiana GOP nominee knocked out six-term Sen. Richard Lugar, a lion of the establishment and the most senior Republican in the chamber, after a heated primary challenge.

"If the Republicans lose that [Indiana] Senate seat, forget about taking back the Senate," says NPR political analyst Ken Rudin. "It's going to make it that much more uphill a climb."

Mourdock hurt himself with comments about rape and abortion, observing during a debate that if a rape victim becomes pregnant, that is God's will. Women's rights advocates called the comments demeaning, and his fellow Republicans called them a distraction. Mitt Romney's presidential campaign distanced itself from Mourdock's views. And his Senate opponent, three-term House member and moderate Blue Dog Democrat Joe Donnelly, pointed to the statement as evidence of Mourdock's extremism.

Mourdock's remarks came on the heels of another controversy, this one in Missouri. Rep. Todd Akin, the GOP candidate, is in a tight race against incumbent Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. McCaskill had been considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats up for re-election this year, but Akin's comments about the unlikelihood of pregnancy after a "legitimate rape" drew national condemnation. Republican leaders and even members of the Tea Party Express pleaded with Akin to withdraw from the race, but he refused. Akin went on to compare his opponent to a "dog," fetching high taxes and red tape and bringing them home to Missouri.

Squeakers

For early clues as to the mood of the electorate, political analysts say they'll be watching a few close races.

Virginia: Two popular former governors are vying for a seat vacated by Democrat Jim Webb. Republican George Allen, a former U.S. senator and son of a professional football coach, is all but deadlocked against opponent Tim Kaine. Kaine led the Democratic National Committee — and many early polls. But the race has tightened in the final weeks before the election.

Massachusetts: The contest for the seat once occupied by Democratic stalwart Ted Kennedy is up for grabs. Republican incumbent Scott Brown is running to protect his surprise 2010 victory. Brown is racing toward the center, even featuring President Obama in campaign ads. His competition, Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren, in her first political race, is emphasizing her life's work in consumer protection — and collecting millions in out-of-state campaign donations.

Montana: Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester faces six-term House member Denny Rehberg, who is emphasizing his deep roots in the state, his experience as a small-business owner and his fiscal conservatism. Rehberg has a slight lead in the polls, but most analysts consider this race a tossup.

North Dakota: Republican Rep. Rick Berg has been holding on to a small lead against Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, a former state attorney general, who is trying to display her independence from Obama, who's unpopular in the state. Retiring Sen. Kent Conrad, a Democrat, decided not to run for a fifth term.

Nebraska: Former Democratic Gov. and Sen. Bob Kerrey is straining to prove he can go home again — after presiding over the New School in New York City for nearly a decade. Kerrey has been behind in the polls against Republican Deb Fischer, a state legislator since 2004. In the run-up to the election to replace retiring Democrat Ben Nelson, Kerrey has attracted national attention, at least, with endorsements from comedian Steve Martin and former GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel.

Other Races of Interest

Aficionados are also keeping their eyes on three other Senate contests of note.

In Nevada, incumbent Republican Dean Heller and Democrat Shelley Berkley are locked in a tight race, awash with millions of dollars spent on negative TV ads. The candidates could hardly be more different. Heller is a Mormon and a social conservative from a rural part of the state. He was elevated to the Senate after his predecessor, Republican John Ensign, departed following a sex scandal. Berkley, a U.S. House member representing the populous Las Vegas area, put herself through school by working as a cocktail waitress and a keno casino game runner. She has strong union support.

So does Tammy Baldwin, a longtime U.S. House member from Wisconsin who could become the first openly gay member of the Senate. Baldwin, a Democrat, is in a tossup with former Wisconsin GOP Gov. Tommy Thompson. They're vying to replace Democrat Herb Kohl, who is retiring.

And then there is former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona, who would be the first Latino elected to the Senate from Arizona. Carmona is running as a Democrat against Rep. Jeff Flake. Flake, a staunch opponent of earmarks and wasteful spending in his House tenure, is hoping to keep the seat Republican after the retirement of longtime Sen. Jon Kyl.

The House

In the U.S. House, Democrats have virtually no chance of picking up the 25 seats they need to take the reins — even though Congress is unpopular and unproductive. The wave election in 2010 that ushered in dozens of Tea Party Republicans is unlikely to recede. Many experts think the Democrats will net 10 seats, at best.

"The success of Republicans in redrawing the district lines of some vulnerable members, especially freshmen, has made it a very heavy lift for Democrats to get into the majority," says Thomas Mann, a longtime political scholar at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

So Mann is looking at a more narrow issue on Election Day, "the fate of some of the most prominent Tea Party enthusiasts."

Many of those lawmakers have become household names. For instance, there's onetime GOP presidential contender Michele Bachmann of Minnesota. Bachmann is scrapping to hold on to her seat and grab a fourth term against challenger Jim Graves, a Democratic businessman in his first political campaign.

There's also Allen West, a Tea Party favorite in Florida, who is running in a new district this year after state GOP mapmakers initially put him in a more Democratic district. West, a retired Army officer and one of two black Republicans in the House, hit the headlines earlier this year after claiming at a town hall meeting that more than 78 House Democrats are "communist." Challenging West is Patrick Murphy, a Democrat and first-time candidate who worked for his family's construction company doing restoration work after the BP oil spill.

In Illinois, GOP incumbent Rep. Joe Walsh is down in the polls against Democrat Tammy Duckworth. Earlier this year, Walsh complained that Duckworth, an Iraq War veteran who lost both her legs in a helicopter crash, was talking too much about her military heroics. Duckworth responded by releasing a list of Walsh's bombastic remarks, which she called his "greatest hits."

Moments For History

Congress is saying goodbye to several prominent members who are retiring, including Democrat Barney Frank of Massachusetts, the first openly gay member of Congress; also Democrat Dennis Kucinich of Ohio and Republican Ron Paul of Texas, who have both run for president.

NPR's Rudin notes that the House races present any number of opportunities for "firsts." In New Hampshire, Democrats Carol Shea-Porter and Ann McLane Kuster are running to unseat the GOP male incumbents. If both women win, the state's entire congressional delegation, including its two senators, would be composed of women.

And in Massachusetts, there could be another moment ripe with history. Democrat Joe Kennedy III is running to fill the House seat long occupied by the retiring Frank. If Kennedy defeats businessman and Marine Corps reservist Sean Bielat, it would mark the return to Congress of the storied Kennedy family after the death of Sen. Edward Kennedy in 2009 and the departure of his son, Patrick, from the House in 2010.

Finally, in Utah, an African-American and Mormon woman named Mia Love has pulled ahead of incumbent Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson in the weeks before the election. Love, the mayor of Saratoga Springs, has been groomed for big things by GOP leaders and got a prominent slot at the national convention this year.

On The Radar

Three House incumbents up for re-election are on the radar of federal law enforcement. Republican David Rivera of Florida, Republican Michael Grimm of New York and Democrat Jesse Jackson Jr. of Illinois are all staring down FBI investigations of their spending or donor relationships.

'Flight Behavior' Weds Issues To A Butterfly Narrative

Heller McAlpin — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 07:00:00 -0500

Barbara Kingsolver's commitment to literature promoting social justice runs so deep that in 1998 she established the Bellwether Prize (now the PEN/Bellwether Prize for Socially Engaged Fiction) to encourage it.

In the wrong hands, fiction written to convey urgent social messages is as tedious as a political harangue. But done well, it can be both eye-opening and moving: think Charles Dickens on children and poverty in Oliver Twist; Upton Sinclair on the meat-processing industry in The Jungle; Toni Morrison on the tolls of slavery in Beloved; E.L. Doctorow on the collateral damage of war in The March.

While Kingsolver's seventh novel, Flight Behavior, does not quite achieve the resonance of Morrison's and Doctorow's masterpieces, this is partly due to its inherently less dramatic material. What it shares with these books is an integration of important issues with engaging narrative that feels organic: A colony of butterflies and a young woman have both deviated from their optimal flight paths, a story Kingsolver uses to take on global warming and the high costs to society of grossly inadequate public school education, especially in the sciences.

But, as readers of The Poisonwood Bible and The Lacuna are well aware, Kingsolver is no mere propagandist. She is a storyteller first and foremost, as sensitive to human interactions and family dynamics as she is to ecological ones.

The word "rapture" appears on the very first page of Flight Behavior. This is appropriate, for the novel extols the ecstasy of passionate engagement — with people, ideas and the environment. We meet sharply disappointed 28-year-old Dellarobia Turnbow as she's weighing the rapturous potential of an adulterous assignation against the almost-sure ruination of her good name as wife and mother.

Eleven years after the shotgun marriage that derailed Dellarobia's dreams of education and a better life, her respect for her husband, Cub — a sweet, slow-moving lummox — is at an all-time low. "With occasional exceptions in the bedroom, Cub did every single thing in his life in first gear," Dellarobia reflects ruefully. But she feels contrite when she's tough on him because he is already browbeaten by his parents, struggling sheep farmers for whom they both work.

Dellarobia's life is changed by a magical, incomprehensible sight: boughs glowing with "an orange glaze," which she interprets as "a vision of glory" that "looked like the inside of joy." Her vision turns out to be some 15 million monarch butterflies that have come to roost on the Turnbow property in Feathertown, Tenn. — woods soon to be clear-cut by loggers in order to meet a looming balloon payment, if shortsighted Papa "Bear" Turnbow has his way.

The butterflies have gone off course from their normal wintering site in Mexico because of pollution and climate change, and it's questionable whether they can survive the cold this far north. Freakish, ruinous rains, flooding and unexpected snowstorms provide a sinister backdrop to Kingsolver's absorbing tale.

When Ovid Byron, an elegant entomologist from the island of St. Thomas who has devoted his life's work to the monarchs, comes to study the alarming phenomenon, he hires Dellarobia as a lab assistant, opening up her world exponentially. (The characters' unusual names are all mashups from Kingsolver's genealogical tree.) He teaches her the difference between correlation and cause, and that "terrible things can have beauty."

Kingsolver takes us deep inside her smart, appealing protagonist's underprivileged world of free school lunches and soul-sapping secondhand stores. Despite her lack of worldly experience, Dellarobia is acutely aware of her family's Appalachian hillbilly status. Kingsolver highlights social stratifications in often comic scenes, skewering with particular gusto a slick television reporter out to feed the public the most palatable version of the news. She also ribs a conservationist who cluelessly advises Dellarobia to reduce her carbon footprint by flying less and buying new energy-efficient appliances.

Earnest conversations between Dellarobia and Ovid about the direness of environmental conditions sometimes make us feel as if we've wandered into a sophomore seminar, but it's impressive that Kingsolver doesn't sugarcoat the sobering facts of climate change or the heartbreak of a marriage between two good people who are wrong for each other. With a scientist's attention to detail and a writer's compassion for a diverse array of people, Flight Behavior tracks a young woman whose life morphs and takes flight just as she learns about the very real problems of the world in which she's spread her new wings.

Voters To Settle Tight And Turbulent Presidential Battle

Barbara Bradley Hagerty — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 06:58:00 -0500

As Americans go to the polls, one of the closest presidential races in years may be determined by a state in the Midwest and a hurricane named Sandy.

After a campaign that has cost some $6 billion, the two candidates are in the same place they started: with President Obama a smidgen ahead of challenger Mitt Romney, so close that differences are in most cases statistically insignificant.

Obama seems to have regained his footing after his sleepy performance in the first debate last month. According to a Pew Research Center poll over the weekend, Obama is leading Romney 48 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, thanks in part to how he handled the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. In battleground states, too, the president appears to have the momentum.

And yet, Pew Research Center President Andrew Kohut is bracing for a surprise.

"People are conflicted, especially swing voters and moderate voters," Kohut says. "They look at Obama and say, 'He's underperformed.' And they look at Romney and say, 'We don't trust him and we don't know if he's for us.' "

In one way, the conflict is refreshing, says Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The two candidates are "presenting diametrically opposed visions, and that is interesting because often it isn't the case. You have two very different visions on the economy, on social issues, on some aspects of foreign policy."

One thing everyone agrees on: The fate of the presidency will be determined by a handful of battleground states, and perhaps only one: Ohio.

The president has the advantage because there are several routes that would lead him to the 270 electoral college votes he needs to win, says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducts polls for NBC and the Wall Street Journal. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, starts from a weaker position in the projected electoral vote count and must win more battleground states.

"So, in a sense, Romney is playing more for an inside straight," Miringoff says.

The Battleground States

Florida: 29 electoral votes; Real Clear Politics average, Romney up 1.5 percentage points.

Florida is a must-win for Romney. The state has three political identities: The south, including Miami, is diverse and, with the exception of an aging and shrinking Cuban population, leans heavily Democratic. The north, including the Panhandle, is socially and religiously conservative, with a strong military presence. People in the central part of the state — the Tampa-Orlando-Daytona Beach-I-4 corridor — are the definition of swing voters.

Ohio: 18 electoral votes; Real Clear Politics average, Obama up by 2.9 percentage points.

Ohio may be in 2012 what Florida was in 2000 — the most contested of the states. Here we have two strains of working-class voters with opposite motivations. In the north, the auto industry bailout has driven the unemployment rate below the national average, and voters are rewarding the president. The southern part of the state is more socially and religiously conservative; it has been hard-hit economically, particularly the coal industry, and workers lean Republican. Watch for a fight over ballots in this state. Ohio law requires a recount if one candidate wins by a quarter of 1 percent or less, which is a possibility. Moreover, more than 200,000 voters are expected to cast provisional ballots because they don't have a photo ID or for other reasons, and those votes would not be counted until Nov. 16.

Virginia: 13 electoral votes; Real Clear Politics average, Obama up by 0.3 percentage points.

The fight here is between fast-growing northern Virginia, a suburb of Washington, D.C., with its young urbanites who vote Democratic, versus the rest of the state: rural pro-gun conservatives. Obama won this historically Republican state in 2008, but Republicans came roaring back in subsequent races. Virginia is critical to a Romney win.

Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes; Real Clear Politics average, Obama up by 4.2 percentage points.

Romney wants to make this a battleground state, but it is an uphill fight. Wisconsin has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984. Romney briefly had some traction when he selected a favorite son, Paul Ryan, to be his running mate. However, that enthusiasm has ebbed, and Wisconsin was one of the few states that did not give Romney a bump after the first presidential debate in October.

Colorado: 9 electoral votes; Real Clear Politics average, Obama up by 1.5 percentage points.

Obama carried Colorado by 9 percentage points in 2008, but in the preceding three elections, the state went red. Three ingredients make Colorado a swing state. The urban areas of Denver and Boulder are typically Democratic. The growing Latino population favors Obama. But the Colorado Springs area is considered the mecca for conservative evangelicals.

Iowa: 6 electoral votes; Real Clear Politics average, Obama up by 2.4 percentage points.

Since 1998, Iowa has voted for the Democrat, with the exception of George W. Bush in 2004. Obama can count on its growing Latino vote and strong unions for support. But Iowa has turned more conservative of late and elected Republican Terry Branstad as governor in 2010.

New Hampshire: 4 electoral votes; Real Clear Politics average, Obama up by 2 percentage points.

Ages ago, New Hampshire was a reliably red state, but it has turned decidedly purple in recent years. The White House has paid close attention to the state, sending Vice President Joe Biden there several times. But Romney has a foothold there, as well as a vacation house; the voters have an independent streak and generally dislike government intrusion — a sentiment that Romney has capitalized on.

Ups And Downs

If the presidential race has people on pins and needles, it wasn't that way six months ago. Democrats said they were disappointed with Obama's performance, smarting from the desultory economy, and frustrated that he seemed to have forgotten the poor in favor of the middle class. Republicans, too, were tepid about their candidate. In fact, until springtime, evangelicals, who make up a large part of the Republican base, flirted with a number of candidates whose chief characteristic seemed to be that they were not Mitt Romney.

But the past two months have turned into a "roller coaster ride," Sabato says. Each candidate made strategic errors.

The first bit of excitement arrived in mid-September, in the form of a leaked tape of Romney saying that 47 percent of Americans "will vote for the president no matter what," are "dependent upon government, who believe they are victims" and do not pay taxes.

But then, two weeks later, Obama stumbled throughout the first debate. The president looked like a boxer on the ropes taking blows from an aggressive Romney; he even failed to land a punch on Romney with an attack on Romney's 47 percent comment. This erased the president's yawning lead in the polls, and we had a horse race.

"Before the first debate, President Obama was on his way to a landslide re-election victory," says Thomas Riehl, a senior vice president of YouGov, an online polling firm. But after the debate, not only were Obama supporters deflated, but independents and undecided voters took a hard look at Romney — and liked what they saw.

"What Romney accomplished in the first debate was that he stood up on a stage with President Obama and made it clear he was at least his equal," Riehl says. "You could imagine a Romney presidency, and there wasn't much that was very threatening about that."

For the first time, more people told pollsters they would vote for Romney and not just against Obama. According to polls by Pew Research, 36 percent of likely voters said they had a better opinion of Romney after the debate, and his favorability rating shot up to 50 percent — about the same as the president.

But Romney's good fortunes were arrested by the weather. Hurricane Sandy served as a circuit breaker that cut into whatever momentum Romney had generated.

"This was kind of an October surprise," says Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University. "It gave the president an opportunity to act presidential, to act like a commander in chief."

As Obama visited devastated parts of New Jersey and New York — as he received glowing praise from New Jersey Republican Gov. Chris Christie, and then an endorsement from New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg — Romney was forced to the sidelines, at least temporarily. Those television shots of the president impressed voters: The Pew poll found that nearly seven in 10 likely voters — and 63 percent of swing voters — approved of the way the president handled the disaster.

How The Vote Falls

In the final moments of the race, each candidate has advantages and disadvantages that could tip the scale.

Romney has a clear edge among men, especially white working-class men who make up much of the vote in battleground states such as Ohio and Wisconsin. He's leading among older voters — who are bigger in number and more reliable than the young people, who overwhelmingly support the president. Independents are expected to break Republican, as they have in every presidential race since 1952, with the exception of 1964 and 2008, when Obama swept them in a wave of hope and change. Finally, Romney has generated great enthusiasm among Republicans: Romney supporters are more engaged in the contest, and say they are more likely to vote, than Obama supporters. This could mean a larger turnout for Romney on Tuesday night.

The president, however, has plenty of arrows in his quiver. As to enthusiasm, many more voters strongly support Obama than Romney — an indicator that has predicted the popular vote winner in nine of the past 12 elections, says Kohut. Moreover, after cooling to the president last month, female voters have come roaring back to the president's side. Minorities — and especially Latinos, who factor large in swing states such as Florida, Colorado and Nevada — are firmly in the president's camp, as are young people.

Undecided voters remain a big question mark. Republicans hope that 2012 will look like 1980, when undecideds moved en masse in Ronald Reagan's direction.

"But from what we've seen this time around, there isn't that big chunk of undecided voters almost anywhere to be able to make that massive move at the end," says Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University. "On the other hand, if the election is really close, even a feather on the scale can make a difference."

Close Elections 'The New Normal'

Abramowitz at Emory University has developed a model for predicting elections, which he calls the "time for change" model. He looks at presidential approval ratings and GDP in June, as well as incumbency.

Typically, he says, "voters are reluctant to change parties after only one term. When you get to second term or later, they're more willing to make that change."

Using this model, Obama should be poised to win the popular vote by 1 percent, Abramowitz says. But Abramowitz has noticed another development of late: partisanship.

"The advantage of incumbency has gotten smaller, because voters are less willing to cross party lines now," he says. "So when there's a Democratic president like now, Republicans are less willing to cross party lines to vote for him. As a result, the advantage is about half what it used to be."

Abramowitz and others are bracing for a nightmare scenario, similar to 2000, when George W. Bush won the electoral vote and Al Gore won the popular vote. That's a real possibility, says Goldford at Drake, particularly since Hurricane Sandy could suppress the popular vote in New York and New Jersey, even as these states go blue. If that happens, Goldford says, "this past four years will seem like a picnic compared to the next four years."

He pauses, remembering the chaos of 2000, the hanging chads and Supreme Court decision. "One thing I hope more than anything else," he says, "is that this is actually over on Tuesday night."

It may be a vain hope. Lawyers representing both sides are in place, ready to litigate and demand recounts in every close state.

GOP Eyes Gains As Voters In 11 States Pick Governors

Liz Halloran — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 06:58:00 -0500

Voters in 11 states will pick their governors tonight, and Republicans appear on track to increase their numbers by at least one, with the potential to extend their hold to more than two-thirds of the nation's top state offices.

Eight of the gubernatorial seats up for grabs are now held by Democrats; three are in Republican hands. Republicans currently hold 29 governorships, Democrats have 20, and Rhode Island's Gov. Lincoln Chafee is an Independent.

Polls and race analysts suggest that only three of tonight's contests are considered competitive, all in states where incumbent Democratic governors aren't running again: Montana, New Hampshire and Washington.

While those state races remain too close to call, Republicans are expected to wrest the North Carolina governorship from Democratic control, and to easily win GOP-held seats in Utah, North Dakota and Indiana.

Democrats are likely to hold on to their seats in West Virginia and Missouri, and are expected to notch safe wins in races for seats they hold in Vermont and Delaware.

Holding Sway On Health Care

While the occupant of the governor's office is historically far less important than the party that controls the state legislature, top state officials in coming years are expected to wield significant influence in at least one major area.

And that's health care, says political scientist Thad Kousser, co-author of The Power of American Governors.

"No matter who wins the presidency, national politics is going to be stalemated on the Affordable Care Act," says Kousser, of the University of California, Berkeley.

A recent U.S. Supreme Court decision giving states the ability to opt out of the law's expansion of Medicaid, the federal insurance program for poor, disabled and elderly Americans, confers "incredible power" on the states and their governors, Kousser says.

Just look at what happened when the Obama administration in 2010 offered federal stimulus money to states to begin building a high-speed rail network. Three Republican governors, including Rick Scott of Florida and Scott Walker of Wisconsin, rejected a share of the money citing debt and deficit concerns.

"A [Mitt] Romney victory would dramatically empower Republican governors," Kousser says.

State-By-State View

North Carolina: One-term incumbent Democratic Gov. Beverly Perdue, the first woman to hold the state's top office, announced in January that she would not seek re-election after polls showed her with high disapproval ratings and trailing Republican candidate Pat McCrory.

The seat is expected to be won by McCrory, a former Charlotte mayor, who is facing Perdue's lieutenant governor, Walter Dalton. McCrory lost a close race to Perdue in 2008, when then-presidential candidate Barack Obama became the first Democrat to win North Carolina in more than three decades. The Real Clear Politics average for the race has McCrory maintaining a 14.3 percentage point lead.

Montana: Popular Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer — he won his last election with 65 percent of the vote — has reached his two-term limit. The state's Democratic Attorney General Steve Bullock is trying to keep the seat in his party's column by associating himself with Schweitzer's legacy. He's in a tough race with former two-term GOP Rep. Rick Hill.

New Hampshire: Former Democratic state Sen. Maggie Hassan has also promised a continuation of the policies of her predecessor, retiring Democratic Gov. John Lynch. Her opponent is lawyer Ovide Lamontagne, a Tea Party conservative who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1996 and for the U.S. Senate in 2010. The national parties have invested in the campaigns, which have focused on fiscal and women's health care issues.

Washington: The state's governorship has been in Democratic hands for 32 years, and former U.S. Rep. Jay Inslee is in a dead-heat battle to keep it that way. His opponent is the state's Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna. McKenna has a proven ability to win statewide, but working in Inslee's favor are Obama's poll numbers. The Real Clear Politics average shows Obama with an average 13.6 percentage point lead over Romney; Inslee is leading McKenna by an average of 1 percentage point.

Pretty Much Sure Things

Republican Govs. Jack Dalrymple in North Dakota and Gary Herbert in Utah, and GOP Rep. Mike Pence in Indiana are expected to win. So are Democratic Govs. Peter Shumlin in Vermont and Jack Markell in Delaware.

Democrats are also hoping to hold on to the governorship in Missouri, where Jay Nixon is running for a second term against Republican Dave Spence; and in West Virginia, where Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, former state senate president, is running for his first full term after winning a special election in 2011. GOP businessman Bill Maloney is his opponent, as he was last year.

Nixon has been consistently outpolling Spence by an average of about 7 points in Missouri. Tomblin is seen as likely to retain his seat, even in a state where Romney is leading Obama by double digits.

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Florida's New Battleground: The State Supreme Court

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In Florida, Supreme Court justices are nominated by a commission and appointed by the governor. Every six years, they're up for retention. Voters decide whether to keep them on the bench or let them go.

Since the system was put in place in the 1970s, retention votes have been pro forma affairs, with justices doing little fundraising or campaigning.

But this year is different.

One ad, paid for by Americans for Prosperity, a national political action group founded by conservative billionaire David Koch, touched off a campaign by conservative activists who set their sights on reshaping one of the state's most powerful bodies.

A New Battleground

The ad criticizes the justices for blocking a 2010 initiative that opposed Obamacare. It was one of several decisions by the court in recent years that have angered conservatives.

"Shouldn't our courts be above politics?" the ad asks.

Fred Lewis, one of three Supreme Court justices up for retention, says conservative groups are injecting politics into a judiciary that's intended to be nonpartisan and independent.

"When you turn a judicial process into a popularity contest, then you have judges of whatever level looking over their shoulders before they make a decision," Lewis says. "And that's not the way this democracy is going to remain."

In response, the three justices have begun active campaigns of their own.

Supreme Court Justice Barbara Pariente, also up for retention, criticized David Koch and Americans for Prosperity at a meeting with the editorial board of the Orlando Sentinel.

"We now have an out-of-state group wading into the Florida judicial system," Pariente told Sentinel editors. "That should be for any Floridian a wake-up call that our judicial branch is under attack"

Faced with attacks by Americans for Prosperity and other groups, this year the three justices have collectively raised more than a million dollars.

In addition, the state Bar Association and many in Florida's legal community have rallied to support the justices.

Defend Justice from Politics, a group formed to support the justices' retention, fought back with an ad of its own challenging the politicization of the retention vote.

"Newspapers call it a power grab, political intimidation and a hijack of our justice system," the ad says. "Want to stop the politicians from trying to take over the Supreme Court? Then stand up for our justices."

Republicans Split Over Campaign

Ratcheting up the pressure on the justices recently, Florida's Republican Party also announced it is opposing their retention.

It's the first time the Florida GOP has ever taken a stand opposing a sitting justice. The head of the state party, Lenny Curry, rejects charges that Republicans are playing politics with the state's highest court.

"They're on the ballot. This is the law right now," Curry says. "And if our critics don't like the law, then they ought to try to change the law. If they don't think judges should be up for a do-not-retain vote, then work to change the law."

Curry says the proposal came from the party's grassroots — Republican activists around the state who have been unhappy with recent court decisions.

Paula Dockery, a Republican state senator, says she doubts that. Dockery is one of several prominent Republicans critical of her party's decision to work to unseat the justices.

She notes that much of the money for Americans for Prosperity comes from outside Florida.

"What do out-of-state interests care about the Florida Supreme Court justices? So, it leads one to believe that this is a test run for their attempts to do this in other states," Dockery says.

The battle over judicial retention in Florida comes two years after conservatives won a similar fight in Iowa — ousting three members of the state Supreme Court who ruled in favor of same-sex marriage. This year, as in Florida, conservatives are working in Iowa to reshape the state's highest court — opposing retention for a fourth Supreme Court justice.

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